Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
