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Beijing has deployed its coast guard through the maritime area of the Senkaku islands and military drones past remote Japan's territory as China escalates tensions over the Japanese prime minister’s remarks regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard stated that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are administered by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation conducted patrols within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Diplomatic Spat

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments occur during an intensifying diplomatic spat after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, told parliament that if China attack the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That sparked an angry response from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the use of force. Taiwan’s government and citizens overwhelmingly reject the idea of Beijing's control – preferring to maintain the status quo without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the defence ministry said on Sunday morning that it had observed three dozen PLA planes, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was probably the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to three drones flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but infrequent, and Beijing's defense operations in the island's ADIZ generally has been low in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. Taiwan documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Japanese intervention would be certain to collapse.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that tickets to Japan could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it described as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the number of Chinese students could have a detrimental effect on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to education statistics. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the largest demographic.

Media Response

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Strategic Positions

The government of Taiwan says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Japanese leaders have traditionally refrained from publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

Nevertheless, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and portrays dissent as provocative. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.