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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the largest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest upset.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and fun season, he's up against several other elite candidates.

Below is how the hypothetical vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has mastered the off-field aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

Still